Introduction
The commercial production of advanced semiconductor chips, particularly those with a size of less than 7 nanometers (nm), is an immense and intricate endeavor. This blog explores the key obstacles in this domain, primarily focusing on the need for a skilled workforce and the requisite equipment. Additionally, it delves into the historical context of semiconductor development and the geopolitical dynamics that influence the industry today.
Table of Contents
Historical Context: The Collective West’s Headstart
The United States and its allies in the Collective West have maintained a significant headstart in semiconductor technology for nearly 15 years. The timeline of patent filings underscores this advantage. The first US patent related to semiconductor technology was filed in 1986, significantly earlier than those filed by other countries: South Korea in 2001, Japan in 2003, Taiwan in 2006, and China in 2012-2013.
This early start has allowed the US and its allies to control much of the technology and equipment essential for semiconductor chip production. Consequently, the Collective West holds a dominant position in the global semiconductor landscape.
The Dominance of US-Controlled Technology
The extensive control exerted by the US over semiconductor technology is largely due to the numerous patents it holds. Most of these patents are set to expire between 2026 and 2035. Until then, the US can legally dictate terms to any company using its technology under license, including restricting the sale of equipment or the production of chips for specific entities.
Case Study: TSMC and ASML
A prime example of this control is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). A substantial portion (62%) of TSMC’s technology is American. This dependence allowed the US to instruct TSMC to cease manufacturing chips for Huawei in 2018, showcasing the leverage held by the US.
Another critical player is ASML, a Dutch company specializing in lithography machines necessary for producing 7 nm chips. The US, leveraging its technology embedded in ASML’s machines, ordered the company not to sell these machines to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). This embargo has significant implications for China’s semiconductor ambitions.
China’s Response: Innovation and Reverse Engineering
Faced with restrictions, China has embarked on a path of reverse engineering and developing its own technology. SMIC recently manufactured a 7 nm chip using a domestically designed lithography machine. Although the yield was approximately 55%, this was a remarkable achievement considering it was the first iteration of a reverse-engineered ASML machine.
Despite this progress, China aims to achieve a 95% yield, a benchmark it currently meets only for chips of 28 nm and above, manufactured entirely with domestic technology.
The Difficulty in Manufacturing: Beyond Design
While many countries have made significant strides in semiconductor design, manufacturing remains a formidable challenge. The design aspect has seen advancements across the globe, with different nations achieving various milestones:
- The US and South Korea have developed commercial designs for 2 nm chips.
- Taiwan has achieved a 3 nm commercial design.
- China, Japan, and Singapore have cracked the 5 nm commercial design.
- India, Turkey, Malaysia, and Iran have reached 14 nm commercial design capabilities.
- Russia has succeeded with a 28 nm commercial design.
However, turning these designs into functional chips requires sophisticated equipment and a highly skilled workforce. Without access to the right equipment, achieving high yields and maintaining quality becomes exceedingly difficult.
The Role of Geopolitics in Semiconductor Manufacturing
Geopolitical relationships significantly impact a country’s ability to manufacture advanced semiconductor chips. Nations aligned with the US and the Collective West can access cutting-edge technology and equipment without restrictions. Conversely, countries outside this sphere face significant hurdles, as exemplified by the US-imposed limitations on China.
With the proper equipment, achieving a 90% yield is feasible. However, without it, yields may plummet to around 50-55%, leading to substantial quality issues.
Conclusion
The journey to commercially manufacturing advanced semiconductor chips is fraught with challenges, primarily centered around acquiring a skilled workforce and the necessary equipment. The historical headstart of the US and its allies has cemented their dominance in this field, allowing them to wield considerable influence over global semiconductor production.
China’s efforts to innovate and reverse-engineer technologies demonstrate a path forward for nations seeking to break free from this dominance. However, the road ahead is long and complex, with geopolitical dynamics playing a crucial role in shaping the future of semiconductor manufacturing.
In summary, the semiconductor industry is a testament to the intricate interplay of technology, skill, and international relations. As patents expire and new technologies emerge, the landscape may shift, potentially democratizing access to the tools needed for advanced chip production. Until then, the balance of power remains firmly in the hands of those who hold the keys to the most advanced technologies.
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